Senior Analyst: JP Geygan (firstname.lastname@example.org) Associate Analyst: Satendar Singh (email@example.com)
LSB Industries, Inc. (“LSB”) reported financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019 (FQ3 2019) that were expectedly muted. Three primary factors contributed to these results: first, FQ3 is LSB’s seasonally slowest quarter as agricultural sales typically correspond with fertilizer applications occurring in the spring and fall months; second, as a result of unfavorable weather patterns earlier this year, demand for agricultural fertilizers was depressed throughout the spring planting season, resulting in excess supply and low product prices, exacerbated by delays in the distribution networks for these products; and third, LSB conducted two planned turnarounds during FQ3 2019, resulting in lost production at two of its three owned facilities for a total of 42 days. While the seasonal, cyclical, and idiosyncratic sensitivity of LSB’s financial results was on display this quarter, FY 2020 could be a transformative year for the company. Global Value Research Company’s (GVRC) long-term outlook is equally positive: operating characteristics continue to improve, which should strengthen the company’s financial position and allow for a meaningful revamp of the capital structure. Dynamics in agriculture and industrial markets are favorable for improved product pricing and volume demands. Additionally, new commercial opportunities may enable higher plant utilization. GVRC expects LSB’s substantial cash generation potential to be highlighted over the next 12 to 18 months, and modestly revises its target price to $12.85, representing 9.0x estimated FY 2020 EBITDA of $119.1 million.